Freedom Calls: 10/3/25, “Europe gets its mojo back and Freedom changes In Guernsey and ADGM”

 

“JP Morgan’s Guide to markets briefing”, 10/3/25 

By Michael Griffith-Dixon – Investment Manager

 

 

 

Last week Adrian and I attended the JP Morgan’s “Guide to the Markets” event in Guernsey where they presented product agnostic views on the macro economy.  I wanted to recap a few of their key points:

 

1. Trump’s proposed tariffs are huge – 1930’s levels, but he likely won’t keep them for long if the market turns against him 

 

Keeping Ukraine out of the picture, Trump’s tariffs have caused the biggest upset in markets. Tariffs are inherently inflationary and risk upsetting growth. Most market watchers take the view that Trump isn’t serious about imposing huge tariffs indefinitely in an effort to raise revenue. They are bargaining chips and can be quickly reversed, especially if the S&P500 starts sliding dramatically.

 

US growth is still expected to be positive, approx. 1.5-2% and although we’re hearing more people proclaiming the US tech bubble burst, this isn’t comparable to Japan in the 1990’s or the dotcom bubble – US tech is supported by serious earnings.

 

2. China has a problem with consumer demand

 

Trump campaigned on tariffs of 60% on China so they were braced for worse than has so far been inflicted.  Since Trump’s last term China has reduced its reliance on the US importing their products, or at least directly.  Tariffs aren’t the big problem in China, but rock-bottom consumer demand is causing issues.  It’s expected that more fiscal stimulus is required since monetary policy hasn’t been effective.  If that fiscal stimulus materialises it could kickstart the Chinese economy, but for now it doesn’t look especially appealing.

 

3. Europe is cheap and is ready to turn the spending taps on

 

Since the US has abandoned the security guarantees it previously offered, Europe will have to fend for itself and invest into defence on a huge scale. The incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is trying to push through big spending not just on defence but also on infrastructure before his new coalition formally takes power. This is designed to stop the far right and far left blocking these plans.

 

If Merz, Macron and Starmer can lead Europe to a new defence agreement with more funding, it could usher in some much needed growth.

 

European stocks have been very neglected over the last few years as US tech giants dominated returns, but this has left Europe very cheap. There’s increased optimism that lower interest rates and higher spending in Europe could boost growth.  No one’s expecting miracles or a return to 19^th century European dominance, but European stocks still have lots of room to move before they get near US valuation multiples.

 

Finally, the most interesting slide for investors in our Opus Global Freedom Fund was the below which shows a 60/40 portfolio still outperformed cash over three years in every major market crash outlined. 

 

Source: JP Morgan, March 2025

 

The lesson is that staying invested almost always pays off for the patient investor.  Even in uncertain times it rarely pays to totally exit the market.

 

Michael Griffith Dixon

 

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“China sets a GDP target of c.5%”, 10/3/25

By Justin Oliver – Canaccord – Adviser to the Opus Global Growth Fund

 

 

The headlines from last week’s China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) didn’t provide many surprises.  The GDP growth target was set at “around 5%” for the third consecutive year.  The CPI inflation target was trimmed to 2%, which was more an acknowledgment that the previous 3% target was unachievable than a change of policy stance.  And the headline fiscal deficit target was raised to 4% of GDP from 3% last year.

 

The same GDP target, with a lower CPI inflation target

 

 

 

 

The GDP target is ambitious, with the consensus forecast nearer 4.5%.  Net exports contributed 1.5% to overall growth last year, which seems unlikely to be repeated given the developing trade war.  Real estate is likely to remain a drag on investment, which means consumption will have to be the main growth driver.  So it’s encouraging that the government put consumption at the heart of its growth strategy.  Unfortunately, the measures it laid out to do that don’t look up to the task. 

 

Policymakers will aim to keep household income growth in line with nominal GDP – the same target they’ve had for 14 years.  Back in 2011, when the government was more serious about rebalancing the economy toward consumption, then-Premier Wen Jiabao aimed for household incomes growing faster than GDP. Expanding the social safety net would be an effective way to support consumption, but policymakers chose not to go down this route, at least so far. Pension benefits and health insurance subsidies will be raised by the same increment as last year. Although there were some hints that subsidies for payrolls and childcare are in the works, nothing concrete was spelled out in the budget.

 

Once again, subsidies for autos, durable goods, smart phones, etc. are the main way the government plans to boost consumption. The central government will double its outlays for these vouchers to CNY300bn (0.2% of GDP). The planning commission also hinted that the PBoC might launch a re-lending window for consumption loans, although it didn’t prove any details.  This is unlikely to have a huge impact, especially since last year’s vouchers likely pulled forward some demand from this year.  The finance minister also suggested that it was keeping some powder dry in case the trade war with the US intensifies.  It is entirely possible that another CNY1tn (0.7% of GDP) of special bonds could be issued if growth looks to be off track by midyear. 

 

Still, the government work reports to the legislature delivered a couple of surprises. First, Premier Li Qiang said the government would “effectively prevent debt default risks by real estate companies”. Moral hazard concerns previously prevented policymakers from backstopping developers. This may provide more confidence for buyers of off-plan flats. Second, approvals for local government infrastructure projects will be streamlined. This should speed up the issuance of special purpose bonds, and boost investment over the next few months. Both surprises will support growth, but at the cost of a slower transition to the economic model that policymakers say they are pursuing. 

 

The bottom line is that the government may get close to achieving its 5% growth target, but not from significantly faster consumption. Instead, the drag from real estate and construction looks likely to ease more than previously expected in 2025. Nonetheless, on balance, these are positive developments as far as the Chinese economy is concerned.

 

Justin Oliver

 

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“The (Simple) Revolutionary Analysis on Tesla”, 10/3/25

By Cody Willard – 10,000 Days – Advisers to the US Technology VIP Fund

 

 

Each week or so, we will be asking Cody and Bryce to tell us the revolutionary technology story behind their top picks.  This week we look at Tesla.

 

Source: 10,000 Days research

 

Here’s a summary of what we wrote about Tesla last November:

• Tesla stock experienced significant volatility following Trump’s victory, surging to $366 after hours on November 11, dropping to around $310, then rebounding to $339 within a week.
• Our analysis indicated the Trump presidency likely has minimal long-term impact on Tesla, while the company maintains substantial technological advantages in FSD (Full Self Driving), Optimus robots, solar, batteries, and vehicles compared to competitors.

What’s Changed?

Every time I think Tesla can’t get more volatile, it does.  After our last update, Tesla rallied to $488 in a couple of weeks, only to fall back to around $260 currently, giving up all of its post-election gains and then some.

As other analysts have noted, Tesla is clearly experiencing a “buyer’s strike,” and in our opinion this is a great entry point.

We have been continuing to buy Tesla as it has been falling, as we think this stock is probably more than “oversold” at this point.

Obviously, Elon’s political antics don’t help the Tesla brand, but in the long run, none of that matters.  And frankly even in the medium term I’m not sure it matters all that much either.  If Tesla is actually able to launch a revenue-generating robotaxi service in June in Austin, and then in more cities later in 2025, I think the stock will be much higher than here by year end.

Moreover, the company is rolling out Optimus robots in its factories. If at the end of 2025, we have tens of thousands of Tesla robotaxis giving people paying rides in cities around the country and thousands of Optimi working in Tesla factories, I think we’ll look back and realize that Elon’s ceaseless political activities didn’t really matter all that much.

We continue to believe in the long-term vision for Tesla, and our conviction is as high as ever given the crash in the stock price.  We continue to seek to pick up a little more Tesla with each fall to maintain its position as our top stock.

Cody Willard