As we head into the last seven days before (1) the US mid-terms and (2) the Israeli elections, the markets are becoming noticeably jittery.  In the moment that feels unhelpful, but as an investor, if you take advantage of these moments, in the medium to long term it is usually a good thing - see: Freedom Calls: 10/8/26, "Volatility is your (unlikely) friend…".  

So what is likely to happen?  Luckily, today we have Polymarket, the online predictions website, which can give us a good steer on likely outcomes:

1. Israeli Prime Minister Election - Polymarket is saying Gadi Eizenkot wins

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Source: Polymarket 25/10/26

Netanyahu has been a highly divisive figure, whose actions have alienated many of Israel's traditional friends.  He is also up to his ears in corruption scandals, which I hear from numerous sources are, let's just say, "not without merit".  The important thing about a new PM is that it is an opportunity to look at old problems through a new lens and gives everybody a good excuse to sit around the table and find new solutions.  That has to be a good thing for the many challenges that Israel faces right now.

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